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Cake day: June 16th, 2023

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  • I appreciate the online update/kill switch/repaiarability, lock out concerns, but these systems are surprisingly good for safety

    On an early outing with my kid driving, we were going on a freeway next to a long line of cars waiting at an exit. Well suddenly someone pulls right in front of us, in a way that even if it happened to me I think I would have hit it, and certainly the car couldn’t brake in time and my kid swerved instead, a good call but one I’m sure would have left us running into the ditch at the speed we were going and no experience with that maneuver. However it was like a professional driver, managing to dramatically yank the car around the sudden slow car and neatly back in the lane after avoiding.

    I was shocked my kid pulled that off with only 10 hours of driving experience, turns out the car had an evasive steering assist. Saved our asses.

    Tons of videos about the emergency braking tests that should easily convince anyone of their value to safety.



  • It’s pretty much a vibe coding issue. What you describe I can recall being advocated forevet, the project manager’s dtram that you model and spec things out enough and perfectly model the world in your test cases, then you are golden. Except the world has never been so convenient and you bank on the programming being reasonably workable by people to compensate.

    Problem is people who think they can replace understanding with vibe coding. If you can only vibe code, you will end up with problems you cannot fix and the LLM can’t either. If you can fix the problems, then you are not inclined to toss overly long chunks of LLM stuff because they generate ugly hard to maintain code that tends to violate all sorts of best practices for programming.





  • This all presumes that OpenAI can get there and further is exclusively in a position to get there.

    Most experts I’ve seen don’t see a logical connection between LLM and AGI. OpenAI has all their eggs in that basket.

    To the extent LLM are useful, OpenAI arguably isn’t even the best at it. Anthropic tends to make it more useful than OpenAI and now Google’s is outperforming it on relatively pointless benchmarks that were the bragging point of OpenAI. They aren’t the best, most useful, or cheapest. The were first, but that first mover advantage hardly matters when you get passed.

    Maybe if they were demonstrating advanced robotics control, but other companies are mostly showing that whole OpenAI remains “just a chatbot”, with more useful usage of their services going through third parties that tend to be LLM agnostic, and increasingly I see people select non OpenAI models as their preference.




  • I think the wealth tax would be hard to get satisfactorily right. Either too little to feel like ‘justice’ or too much and you have people losing controlling interest in a company despite never really wanting it to get valued that much and never wanting to sell it.

    Also, I think if you are head of a private company, you have a lot more ‘invisible wealth’ than the head of a public company, so there’s opportunity for a tax dodge through making your company private.

    I like the idea of treating leveraging assets to actually have something spendable as income.







  • Fun story, my car had a recall for the brake light coming on randomly. After they replaced the part, then the brake light wouldn’t come on at all. Then they made it so the brake light would only sometimes come on. I said screw it and finally fixed it myself. The pedal pushed down on two different things, one to actually operate the brakes, and a separate little button for the electronic brake indication for the lights and for the cruise control to disengage (the cruise control also stayed active even when hitting the brake pedal).

    Anyway, they screwed up setting the electronic button and I had to position it correctly in the little bracket, where it gets pressed if the brake pedal barely moves even if it takes a smidge of actual distance to start the real braking.



  • Yeah, that graph scale is absurd for comparison… I get it, they want to highlight the ‘trend’ but the scale of the US graph is nothing but a neglible slice of the boottom of the China graph, it’s just impossible to intelligently compare the ‘trends’ in that manner…

    Also skeptical of a claim of 0.0% for anyone. It looks to me that, by the criteria of the graph, china has managed to effectively tie the US on this sort of metric, and the US has roughly held it flat for the last 30 years.

    As others point out, this particular metric may not be a good one, and depending on how you slice the other metrics, either China or US technically comes out ahead, but broadly a more comparable standard of living.


  • I guess their point is if you exclude the upper half, China has managed to fare better.

    Basically if we torture the numbers either side can get them to say whatever that side wants, by cherry picking criteria or excluding certain portions of the population.

    Which is frankly a fantastic outcome for China, where in the past there was no way to make the numbers even close, now things are close enough as to each side being able to point out a way of measuring which makes them look better.