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Joined 2 years ago
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Cake day: June 22nd, 2023

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  • The issue isn’t about ownership, per se. It’s about acquisition of principle value which you carry with you when you sell the house.

    The example halfway down the post of a $400K loan fixed at 6% is a good example: A 15-year loan would have a $3,375.74 monthly payment but pay off $305,364 principle after 12 years. A 30-year would have a $2,398.20 monthly payment, but have only $134,978 paid off. A 50-year has a $2,063.74 payment only pays off $66,251 principle.

    This is why it’s a particularly bad debt trap. The 15 or 30-year mortgage allows the homeowner to move and have acquired significant principle value, which makes the costs of moving much lower.

    And the monthly payment in substance are costlier when you add “interest” (rent into a black hole) and lower “principle” (long-term loan to the bank which is repaid back at sale). When the house is sold, the principle value returns to the seller via the sale and remaining loan payoff. So when you are paying off, say, $1,000 a month, if $600 is principle and $400 is interest, your true (final, after-the-sale-returns-principle-to-you) payment is $400. If you lower the total to $900 a month, but it breaks down as $400 principle and $500 interest, the true payment is $500.

    So again, debt trap.








  • Yeah, no, I meant “democrats.” The reason why I think democrats will “own” the shutdown is that they gained nothing of value, and contradicted themselves by defecting without getting what they said they were fighting for.

    If they had just held the line and trusted opinion polling that said people were blaming republicans for this, republicans would have had to own it. Now, democrats look like the ones who wouldn’t compromise for 40 days but eventually were forced to.

    As secondary effects, there are also two negative narratives democrats created: (a) what they were fighting for wasn’t that important (so democrats are at fault for shutting down the government for something unimportant), or (b) what they were fighting for was important and they folded without getting it (so democrats are at fault for being feckless or incompetent). There’s a strong likelihood one or both of these will take hold and undermine democrats’ positions further leading to December.


  • “Capitulating” usually infers a loss of sorts. The democrats folding indicates that they are the opposite of “in control” of anything.

    The entire PR battle was about who was responsible for the shutdown, when either side could have had defectors and ended it in the other side’s favor. But the outcome contextualizes the battle retroactively. Here, the outcome was that democrats “won” at best status quo from before the shutdown, which is just objectively a loss since we had 40 days of pain until then. Further, the public impression will likely be that the shutdown was pointless if nothing of value was actually gained, all while democrats shine a spotlight on their part in this. Democrats defected, so that is a “capitulation” which is a loss plus volition. Really confused what is controversial about those statements, let me know.

    But also, “technical” leverage? That sounds like some bs. Like “potential” leverage.

    “Technical” in the sense that yes, you can say they have leverage, while in substance, no, they do not have leverage. “Superficial” leverage work better? “Illusory” leverage?

    There is absolutely no reason to think a December vote will be any different, while they also gave up the actual leverage (the republican-damaging PR effect of this shutdown) and will start in December in a materially worse negotiating position because of that. I think the meaning is clear, but let me know if not.




  • The deal says “You have to put the ACA subsidies to a vote by December. In return, we’ll fund the government until January.”

    So they’re not giving up their leverage, because if the Republicans fuck around the Dems can just slam the brakes on again right away

    Except that in the public’s eyes, Democrats probably now own the current shutdown, thanks to the Democrats’ capitulation which makes the whole things look both pointless and in Democrats’ control.

    So in January, there’s going to be even greater pressure and blame on Democrats if they don’t agree to the same Republican demand. Knowing our Democratic leaders have spines made of gently chilled consomme, the same things will play out faster.

    And this only emboldens Republicans. They have always believed Democrats would fold. There are decades of history behind this belief and now they have reliable evidence this specific Senate and this specific issue is no different.

    So Democrats just gave up all practical leverage, even if they have technical leverage.




  • The article doesn’t make clear, but it seems like there is no reasoning or opinion given since this is an emergency order.

    But most interesting is that this appears to be the sole decision of Justice Jackson, possibly the most liberal justice on the Supreme Court. So I’d love to know what the rationale was.

    After a Boston appeals court declined to immediately intervene, Supreme Court Justice Ketanji Brown Jackson issued an order late Friday pausing the requirement to distribute full SNAP payments until the appeals court rules on whether to issue a more lasting pause. Jackson handles emergency matters from Massachusetts.




  • Healthcare is a perfect case in point: While most independents are blaming republicans for the shutdown, republican voters are still blaming democrats despite democrats trying to keep healthcare costs from rising. Because their version of “not paying attention to politics” is uncritically accepting Fox News’ narrative that democrats want to give illegal immigrants free healthcare.

    They won’t even critically engage until they are personally harmed, and by then, they have already sunk-cost-fallacied themselves into blaming democrats and just need Fox to update the new reason for the blame.