This might be a bit of a bad question, but I don’t know where to ask to get the least biased responses.
So, I have about $1.000 in Bitcoin that used to be $300 (I’ve put in about $1.500 in various shitcoins before getting those BTC)
I fly drones as a hobby and I was thinking of getting a new system for that amount of money.
I’m sorta pissed at Satoshi for making Bitcoin so deflationary because it incentives people to hold onto their Bitcoin for as long as possible without using it as a currency. Anyway if you’re fine with holding this for a few decades it’ll almost currently go up, and if you wait a few centuries it would probably eclipse the value of any other assets you own.
Below is a probability‑weighted baseline for Bitcoin’s average spot price (USD) in each calendar year through 2035, with an 80 % confidence band that reflects:
- Crypto‑native factors – post‑halving supply shocks in 2024 and 2028, ETF demand, miner economics.
- Macro & policy vectors – the stagflation/authoritarian scenarios you asked about, plus rates, dollar strength, CBDCs and potential crack‑downs.
- Adoption growth – institutional weight (e.g., spot‑ETF inflows) and retail penetration in the US/UK.
Year Expected Avg. Price 80 % Band Primary Drivers & Assumptions 2025 $130 k $ 90 k – $ 160 k Post‑2024 halving tailwind, spot‑ETF inflows ($4 bn in three weeks), Standard Chartered’s Q2 guide of $120 k seen as floor. 2026 $170 k $ 110 k – $ 220 k Typical cycle peak 12‑18 mo after halving; ETF share could top 6 % of float; mild US recession & regulatory chill cap euphoria. 2027 $125 k $ 80 k – $ 180 k Post‑peak draw‑down phase; tighter US/UK KYC plus macro softness; safe‑haven bids offset some selling. 2028‡ $140 k $ 90 k – $ 250 k ‡Next halving (≈ Apr 2028) halves issuance; authoritarian capital‑flight tail‑risk vs. harsher AML/CBDC clamp‑downs. 2029 $350 k $ 200 k – $ 500 k Historical bull‑run year after halving; dollar‑confidence slide in debt‑crisis scenario; first major corporate‑treasury allocations in UK. 2030 $500 k $ 300 k – $ 900 k Ark Invest base‑case $710 k anchors upside; widespread Lightning/merchant use, but possible US transaction‑monitoring tax. 2031 $600 k $ 400 k – $ 1 m Network‑effect compounding; mining margin squeeze pushes hash abroad; some states treat BTC as strategic reserve. 2032 $700 k $ 500 k – $ 1.2 m Pre‑halving anticipation; institutional allocators raise target weights to 5 % portfolio average. 2033 $850 k $ 600 k – $ 1.5 m Post‑halving rally phase; digital‑dollar + UK‑Gov CBDC coexist, but capital‑controls risk tempers upside. 2034 $1.0 m $ 700 k – $ 1.8 m If Ark bull‑case ($1.5 m–$2.4 m) starts to realise, corporate pension funds and sovereign wealth pile in; crackdown probability still ~25 %. 2035 $1.2 m $ 800 k – $ 2.1 m Mature asset narrative, but split world: high‑surveillance blocs cap convertibility while liberal blocs treat BTC as “digital gold.” How the bands were built
- Cycle template – every prior halving produced a peak ~500‑600 days later; we applied a ±35 % volatility buffer around those glide‑paths.
- Macro stress scenarios – the stagflation/authoritarian track adds 0–30 % premium (capital flight) or subtracts up to 25 % (criminalisation/transaction bans), weighted by our timeline probabilities.
- Adoption curve – ETF ownership share, corporate‑treasury penetration, and UK/US retail ownership each follow S‑curves calibrated to 2010‑2024 data.
- Regulatory shock factor – discrete risk of US/UK banning self‑custody (~10 % by 2030) or imposing punitive taxes (~25 %), trimmed from the top end of each confidence band.
Key caveats
- Black‑swans – protocol failures, quantum‑attack breakthroughs, or global wartime asset freezes could break the model.
- Confidence bands widen after 2030 because crypto’s long‑run variance remains ~70 % annualised.
- Not investment advice – projections are directional estimates, not guarantees.
These price lanes integrate the authoritarian‑risk timeline you requested; should political repression stifle fiat on‑/off‑ramps faster than expected, the lower bounds would dominate. Conversely, if capital controls bite while self‑custody remains legal, the upper bounds could look conservative.
Interesting. Where can I read more about this analysis?
It’s just my own analysis all things considered in alignment with Strauss-Howe generational theory which predicts a mass realignment within the next ten years.
Unfortunately hellish dystopia realignment is the most probable currently. But the fascists have co-opted Bitcoin so probably pump anyway.
As a rarity on Lemmy, I’m neutral on bitcoin as an investment. Yes, it’s very voltaile, but it does continue to have a record of going up over any 3 year period. So does the traditional stock market. The argument against bitcoin is that it could collapse at any moment and is only propped up by those who keep buying into the pyramid scheme. OK, and? Same can be said about traditional stock markets. The prices are entirely fictional there, too. We have supposed outlier cases like Tesla being massively overvalued, leading to crashes. The same could be said about any other company because the metrics are subjective, feigned as objective because someone made some predictive mathematical formulas. Neither one is actually run by the small-time inveators/buyers like you and me, it’s all operated by massive investment companies. They have an interest in winning and we hope we can hold onto our shares through economic downturns in order to ride the total bullshit profit trains they fuel after each crash.
Back to the question at hand, like any investment, once you sell, don’t look back at what you could have had. You sell the item in exchange for money, then that money buys you something of comparable value at the time of the transaction. It’s hard to do, but that’s the only clean way too look at it.
So from an isolated viewpoint, there’s nothing wrong with selling now at its latest high and turning it into something tangible. But as others have said, make sure the current $1500 value would not be that important to you otherwise. You could ask yourself what you would decide if you simply had $1500 extra in the bank. Would it still be justified? Would you still be comfortable? Would you still be able to handle a reasonable financial setback? I don’t know your life, location, or situation (and don’t want to know) so that’s your decision.
Same can be said about traditional stock markets. The prices are entirely fictional there, too.
Not true at all.
Microsoft has 7.4B stocks outstanding.
Microsoft has a valve as a company.
Owning 1 stock gets you 1/7.4Bth of the physical company.
If Microsoft goes bankrupt or dissolves you could get some value out of your share.
There are 19.9M BTCs
BTCs have no intrinsic value
Owning 1 BTC gets you 1 BTC
If BTC goes under you get nothing
The stock market does have artificially inflated/deflated prices but they are roughly based on a company’s value. The stock is backed by the company.
I agree with some of what you’ve said but not all
Bitcoin has intrinsic value because its simply more practical for society to collectively hallucinate that it’s valuable, because it allows for more trade. And at the same time, its deflationary, causing that collectively hallucinated value to increase over time. The only case in which Bitcoin could ever fall to zero would be in a 51% attack if the attacker chose to double spend a ton of coins, hyperinflation the currency - but that would never happen, because it would be super expensive, and because its not in the attackers economic interest, so it makes sense to rule out that scenario. This is arguably less likely than nuclear war.
I agree with some of what you’ve said but not all
Bitcoin has intrinsic value because its simply more practical for society to collectively hallucinate that it’s valuable, because it allows for more trade. And at the same time, its deflationary, causing that collectively hallucinated value to increase over time. The only case in which Bitcoin could ever fall to zero would be in a 51% attack if the attacker chose to double spend a ton of coins, hyperinflation the currency - but that would never happen, because it would be super expensive, and because its not in the attackers economic interest, so it makes sense to rule out that scenario. This is arguably less likely than nuclear war.
I agree with some of what you’ve said but not all
bitcoin has intrinsic value because its simply more practice for society to collectively hallucinate that its valuable, because it allows for more trade. and at the same time, its deflationary, causing that collectively hallucinated value to increase over time. The only case in which Bitcoin could ever fall to zero would be in a 51% attack if the attacker chose to double spend a ton of coins, hyperinflation the currency - but that would never happen, because it would be super expensive, and because its not in the attackers economic interest, so it makes sense to rule out that scenario. its arguably less likely then nuclear war
There is no physical company. I can’t eat Microsoft any more than I can eat a Bitcoin, as much as I might want to.
Isn’t it at an all time high or damn close? Just sell. Crypto is a basically a damn scam. Not judging. It’s just so volatile. It has extreme highs followed by periods of extreme lows. Don’t force yourself to live through another crypto winter.
I really hit the jackpot by mining one back in like pre 2014 (but sadly only one lol) and sold it in 2021. It’s been frustrating seeing how high it is now, but the feeling isn’t as bad as it was seeing the price drop after the times I didn’t sell. I’m much happier having traditional assets like total market index funds.
Crypto is a house of cards that could just collapse at any time. Don’t be a bag holder. Sell while it’s in a period of high then don’t look at the price ever again. Cut your winnings and go.
My advice would be to treat investing in unique assets - like shares in one company or Cryptos - as gambling: only put in what you’re willing to lose. Anything you can’t afford to lose should be saved or put into index funds with lower risk and volatility.
You just cannot know what an asset will do in 6 months. You can have a really good guess, but at the end of the day it’s still a guess. And that guessing is even more difficult when it’s a non-productive asset like Bitcoin, because then you’re just gambling on vibes. There isn’t much logic to Bitcoin’s price besides “what if” and FOMO.
So yes, if you can afford to lose the money, you can leave it in. But if that money going to zero overnight would impact your quality of life or ability to absorb unexpected expenditures, then liquidate.
And on a more personal note, you’re probably better off having the drone you want than flipping a (digital) coin and hoping it’s heads
just sell it before you lose it. Bitcoin is a fucking gamble
You are right, however OP invested only 300 bucks, so you could as well leave it invested just for the fucking gamble
Jist gonna ignore the part where he said he blew $1500 on shitcoins? He’s down $800 overall
Bitcoin went from under like 5k in 2020 to over 100k in 2024. The problem isn’t Bitcoin, it’s people thinking they can easily outperform Bitcoin by buying into shitcoins that are clearly Ponzi schemes and thinking they’ll know when to get out. Ask me how I know.
Meanwhile, a friend wasn’t tempted by the shitcoins, simply bought BTC and ETH and held, now he’s easily 4x’d his money by doing as close to nothing as possible and most importantly, not touching fucking shitcoins.
Bitcoin isn’t a gamble, a gamble is a gamble. Just like you can treat the SP500 as a retirement fund, or the source of your next options in a gamble.
This might be a bit of a bad question, but I don’t know where to ask to get the least biased responses.
So, I have about $1.000 in Bitcoin that used to be $300 (I’ve put in about $1.500 in various shitcoins before getting those BTC)
I fly drones as a hobby and I was thinking of getting a new system for that amount of money.It’s not really a complex equation. If you need liquidity, liquidate assets. If you don’t need liquidity, don’t liquidate assets.
How badly you want your new hobby system is something only you can answer.Honestly, with that return you could just take out your initial investment and have the rest gamble on big for free.
This. Take your 300 out and see what happens to the rest.
Yes, by all means, it is time to sell. The upwards potential is unclear, while the downward movement can get you back to $30000. Most likely, you will not gain much more on this market at the moment, while potential loss is colossal.
Just to clarify, you put $1800 into this and are now hoping to get $1000 out of it before turning your back on cryptocurrency?
I would be getting $1000 out right now, and I absolutely don’t know if I should
Sure, why not.
Lemmy is anticrypto so most will be unfavorable to this post.
well not all of Lemmy is anticrypto, there’s a few communites and instances here that talk about that sorta thing
This is what I was leaning towards. Getting my ROI within a year of the first payout would be nice due to taxes, I don’t have the English vocabulary to explain this. Basically I have to pay taxes for any money I receive over my initial investment and everything lost not being used within a year will be lost
Well, those are toy amounts and not investment amounts, so this is more of a question of whether you want to keep some BTC for fun, or selling it off and focus on other hobbies.
Unless you want to play around trading the BTC on exchanges in the near future, I’d say just sell off.
