Sort of yes, you can wager an event will happen and, because this is real life you can absolutely be the decider that something does or does not happen. The whole “sex toys at the WNBA” had 2 cases where the person who threw the toy was also in the pool for it to happen. The platform refused to pay out for these as far as I know, but these people were also arrested and verified and such. I don’t know what happens if you wager on a severe crime like an assassination, and don’t get caught - but if it’s a guarantee to get a visit from at least one of the three letter agencies if you opened that betting pool.
Sort of yes, you can wager an event will happen and, because this is real life you can absolutely be the decider that something does or does not happen. The whole “sex toys at the WNBA” had 2 cases where the person who threw the toy was also in the pool for it to happen. The platform refused to pay out for these as far as I know, but these people were also arrested and verified and such. I don’t know what happens if you wager on a severe crime like an assassination, and don’t get caught - but if it’s a guarantee to get a visit from at least one of the three letter agencies if you opened that betting pool.