Data shows the headline unemployment rate continued to climb and hit 4.6%, a four-year high, last month
The US labor market grew by more than expected last month, recovering some of the damage inflicted by the federal government shutdown, according to official data.
An estimated 105,000 jobs were lost in October, and 64,000 were added in November, a highly-anticipated report showed on Tuesday.
Jobs growth was higher in November than anticipated by many economists, with a consensus forecast of some 40,000 jobs added. But the headline unemployment rate continued to climb – and hit 4.6%, a four-year high, last month.
The latest jobs numbers, typically released monthly, were delayed due to the government shutdown. They land amid significant uncertainty surrounding the strength of the US economy.
Raise your hand if you actually trust any of this data though. I know my hand isn’t up.
Came here to say this.
If anything, my guess is that number is way higher. I’d imagine they’d rather just lie and say that jobs are actually going up. If they can’t even say that I imagine the numbers are beyond fucked.
I saw a breakdown the other day postulating that the true unemployment rate is masked by the gig economy, because people are more likely to drive Uber than file for unemployment
If Uber and the other gigs didn’t exist the unemployment rate would probably be at least double what it is now, then again would something else have taken over in its place? Different conversation but kinda does highlight the power of these gig companies. Uber for example would be like these third largest US employer behind Walmart and Amazon if they did employ most the people who do it as the same equivalence of a part or full time job.
Here, I found the video
It’s youtube because I couldn’t find it anywhere else. But I think it addresses some of your points. The biggest point it makes is that at the same time that the greater economy lost 3 million jobs (or had that many layoffs), the gig economy gained roughly the same number of people.
Yeah I saw Atriocs reaction video to that. It’s very true in places like Florida, that’s where I was when dealing with both layoffs as well as the extended job search while rent went up at the same time. Ended up leaving a month before the election back north closer to where I grew up and have been better. I’m so glad to have left cause now uber has a planner where you have to schedule your time to work the gig, widely talked about on their subreddit as well as the market got so flooded with drivers this year while less people are riding that none of them make much money anymore
The ADP numbers for November have us at losing 30k in November though they had us up in October
It’s absolutely terrible news… So I’m inclined to believe it’s more likely than not to be accurate.
But, considering the massive cuts and layoffs in government agencies, I believe there is also a reason to question how accurate that might be based on that. But I don’t think we’re being intentionally lied to to, because if they wanted to lie to us they’d tell us something much better than us.
It’s very complicated to define and measure something as nebulous, nuanced, and politically charged as unemployment in a precise, meaningful, objective, and cost-effective way (amongst other vital characteristics).
In the USA, we’re measuring and defining unemployment with methodologies that are essentially the lowest common denominator. That these numbers also obscure and obfuscate the reality of the situation is part of the design. To further complicate the issue, a lot of policies are being made essentially to game those simplified metrics – perverse incentives.
These numbers may very well be extremely precise and highly accurate and still it doesn’t mean that they are reflective of what Americans are experiencing as a whole or on an individual basis. And yet, policy makers are (or appear to be) focusing on these singularly to make them look better and keep up appearances.
My situation and experience are completely anecdotal, of course, but from my vantage point, it looks like there’s an uncontrolled downward economic spiral being swept under the rug. Folks who can work and want to work (or at least wouldn’t mind it) are sitting outside the system, idle. Employers are reducing their workforce and then placing added burden on those that remain to make up the difference. Those folks are burning out, taking leave, quitting, retiring early, etc. Employers aren’t replacing them, just slathering the work onto fewer and fewer plates. So, if the government isn’t doing anything meaningful about it (and in fact making it worse) and employers aren’t doing anything meaningful about it (besides taking advantage), it’ll be interesting to see how this is resolved. “It’ll work itself out in a few years” is not a reasonable stance, whether it’s true or not.
Unemployment numbers that aren’t as bad as everyone expected are missing the point, and certainly not a cause to rally and celebrate, in my opinion.
There are many different accepted methodologies for measuring unemployment. For some reason the media only focuses on the U-3 value, and I agree that is highly misleading.
It sounds like the relevant statistic you are looking for is the U-6 value. U-6 is currently measured at a relative high of 8.7%. That is 30 million Americans who are unemployed or underemployed.
You can find all the data at the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Alternative measures of labor underutilization
Yeah. I’ll never understand why people have accepted the corporate media’s use of mostly U-3 data. I think U-6 likely reflects things in a much more realistic way.
Only ones that belive most of this anymore are the ones that don’t go out and interact with the public or dont read/watch much outside of their entertainment echo chamber, which is still a lot of people but they aren’t thinking much outside of the headlines. The labor market is shit right now for anyone that’s actually looking for work. From my experience on this lots of employers are interviewing, yes there are multiple rounds in the most basic jobs lately, to then get offered wages so low it’s better to go in the gig market and cater to the wealthy.
I wish I was joking but when this was ongoing last year I did over 50 interviews with dozens of companies hr departments, not recruiters, to be offered wages lower than what indeed and glassdoor data showed others were being paid pre 2024. I did sales so seeing base salaries so low and commission rates lowered compared to before it’s was an early sign these companies are either low on cash from lack of spending or a greater push towards outsourcing labor oversees like my last 2 employers before that did since they can pay $2 an hour to have someone make cold calls all day in Vietnam and have the older folks in the company take the leads and keep the commissions to afford their bloated lifestyles post covid.
The same is for the Neverending growth of the publicly traded companies that are forced to keep finding ways to spend less so they have higher payouts/dividends for the same folks in that older generation with bloated lifestyles. Sadly that “best” way to lower spending is to lay off workers and then next year a couple more then a couple more as AI (really offshoring) takes them all like the manufacturing jobs.
