• CosmoNova@lemmy.world
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    1 day ago

    The US and the EU can counter balance China comfortably on their own if they really deem it necessary. I doubt that‘s the reason Denmark is going full surveillance state.

    • plyth@feddit.org
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      1 day ago

      What else could it be?

      Btw, they still would need population control even if EU and US try to do it on their own. However Venezuela and other countries show that the US won’t let South America be part of the multipolar world.

      can counter balance China comfortably on their own

      How? China has all the production capabilities and is just moments away from having the missing high precision tools.

      • kbal@fedia.io
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        24 hours ago

        What else could it be?

        It could simply be the same basic authoritarian instinct shared by governments everywhere. We don’t like this thing that’s happening, therefore we pass a law saying it can’t happen. Technical details of why that won’t work are not important, and are probably invented by obstinate malcontents. Just do it.

        • plyth@feddit.org
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          3 hours ago

          That requires some form of incompetence. The sneakiness of introducing voluntary chat control that stops being voluntary in the fine print but isn’t discussed by the media suggests that some people are putting in serious effort. An incompetent person would know about VPNs only years after age verification became active law.

          • kbal@fedia.io
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            8 minutes ago

            In this case, where there is much evidence of conspiracy, I tend towards conspiracy theory: The incompetent and the ignorant whose names we know are being guided and manipulated by lobbyists and psychopaths with secret motivations who know exactly what they’re doing.

      • CosmoNova@lemmy.world
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        1 day ago

        The EU and the US are both economically stronger and more stable than China. Not to speak of the political and cultural power they have over most parts of the world. The US and the EU are individually bigger players on the global stage than China in most aspects. They wouldn‘t need to join forced to counter balance China. At least not going by numbers.

        • plyth@feddit.org
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          1 day ago

          From memory, the EU and China are 18% of global GDP, GB is 3%. The US is the biggest but by PPP China is already bigger.

          China had a $1 trillion trade surplus. The US are forcing the EU to buy their gas. China is growing, the EU is shrinking.

          To me that means it is a matter of years until China is clearly number one.

          Won’t the current power of EU and US become a liability when China can offer the former colonies to finally break free from their masters?

          • CosmoNova@lemmy.world
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            1 day ago

            China will never be number one just like Japan didn‘t when they ran with a similar export model. They have much more massive looming economic challenges than we do. If anything, India will take their spot as the global factory.

            • plyth@feddit.org
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              1 day ago

              Japan was stopped with the power of the dollar. China doesn’t even have the dept to try that on China.

              Which challenges does China have and why should India be able to take their spot?

              • CosmoNova@lemmy.world
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                6 hours ago

                I’m sorry, what? China has a mountain of debt and the housing bubble is swallowing up any savings an average household could accumulate. Turns out pouring more concrete in a decade than the USA poured in a century comes at a cost after all. This might be news to some but it shouldn‘t come as a surprise.

                What definitely shouldn‘t be news to anyone at this point is China‘s inevitable demographic time bomb that‘s about to go off. China‘s population is aging much more rapidly than any other demographic in the world and soon a huge chunk of their workforce will retire with way too few workers to replace them.

                These things will put a strain on China’s economy that makes Japan‘s bubble burst look like a cakewalk.

                • plyth@feddit.org
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                  5 hours ago

                  The aging population threatens the economy but it cannot be used to contain China.

                  None of this analysis should be taken to imply that specific Chinese borrowers are not overleveraged with respect to external debt. Where risk does exist, it lies primarily with Chinese companies and NBFIs who are net borrowers, as opposed to banks which are net lenders. Taken as a whole, the Chinese economy is not particularly reliant on foreign borrowing, especially when compared to other emerging markets. The Chinese economy is overleveraged in many respects, but the country’s credit boom has been domestic in nature.

                  https://www.seafarerfunds.com/prevailing-winds/2019/01/tracking-chinas-external-debt/

                  A bit outdated but good analysis. After this year’s $1 trillion trade surplus, it can only have improved for China.

                  The dangerous dept part comes from doing business and is balanced by their currency reserves. Both are in dollar.

                  The US government would have to default on their obligations while their creditors need the leverage to enforce their dept on China. Is that possible at all?