The aging population threatens the economy but it cannot be used to contain China.
None of this analysis should be taken to imply that specific Chinese borrowers are not overleveraged with respect to external debt. Where risk does exist, it lies primarily with Chinese companies and NBFIs who are net borrowers, as opposed to banks which are net lenders. Taken as a whole, the Chinese economy is not particularly reliant on foreign borrowing, especially when compared to other emerging markets. The Chinese economy is overleveraged in many respects, but the country’s credit boom has been domestic in nature.
A bit outdated but good analysis. After this year’s $1 trillion trade surplus, it can only have improved for China.
The dangerous dept part comes from doing business and is balanced by their currency reserves. Both are in dollar.
The US government would have to default on their obligations while their creditors need the leverage to enforce their dept on China. Is that possible at all?
The aging population threatens the economy but it cannot be used to contain China.
https://www.seafarerfunds.com/prevailing-winds/2019/01/tracking-chinas-external-debt/
A bit outdated but good analysis. After this year’s $1 trillion trade surplus, it can only have improved for China.
The dangerous dept part comes from doing business and is balanced by their currency reserves. Both are in dollar.
The US government would have to default on their obligations while their creditors need the leverage to enforce their dept on China. Is that possible at all?