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Cake day: May 1st, 2024

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  • I agree that it’s editorialized compared to the very neutral way the survey puts it. That said, I think you also have to take into account how AI has been marketed by the industry.

    They have been claiming AGI is right around the corner pretty much since chatGPT first came to market. It’s often implied (e.g. you’ll be able to replace workers with this) or they are more vague on timeline (e.g. OpenAI saying they believe their research will eventually lead to AGI).

    With that context I think it’s fair to editorialize to this being a dead-end, because even with billions of dollars being poured into this, they won’t be able to deliver AGI on the timeline they are promising.