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Cake day: March 26th, 2024

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  • Superdelegate have never swayed a primary. Not once. And since the blowback from the 2016 primary, they have changed the rules to ensure that they will never subvert the will of the voters.

    The idea that there was some groundwell of support for Bernie that was discouraged from voting at all because the meanie superdelegates had announced who they supported is baseless. Bernie could have faught it out if he got more votes than Hillary. All those governors and former office holders that had those votes had not cast them yet and pledging to support a candidate is not the same as casting your vote at the convention. They might have thought twice about supporting Hillary if she was only getting 48% to Bernie’s 52. That would have been an actual thumb on the scale.

    We will never know, because the primary voters wanted Hillary, just like the general election voters.



  • Millennials are getting more conservative as they age, at least in the US. We thought this might be true during Trump’s first term when the age gap in voter behavior was so large, but millennials were delayed in reaching the wealth milestones like homeownership and to a lesser degree childbirth. We weren’t shut out entirely.

    As millennials reach their peak earning power we will get more conservative still. The fact of the matter is that being poor shortens your life and being rich stunts your empathy. Individuals don’t change their politics much. As time passes the poor die off from the generational cohort and leave the rich conservative assholes.

    Wealth concentration to the rich will push each succeeding generation left as a greater proportion of people are locked out of wealth accumulation, but that has a few generations to go before the limits and a tip into facism is always possible as we see right now.








  • The great recession didn’t touch it. Covid didn’t touch it. Jan 6 didn’t touch it.

    Ending the two party system would require changing the way national elections work. That would require a constitutional amendment.

    That would require one party taking full control of Congress and more importantly 2 thirds of state legislatures. The most plausible path to that I see currently is trump taking his coup to the next level, interfering in elections nationwide and placing maga in control all over the country.

    Then they start passing constitutional amendments changing what it means to be a citizen and who can vote.

    “Wait, not like that” you are probably thinking.

    That’s why I think there would have to be mass death. The pandemic is probably the next most likely, Democrats seek safety in distance and Republicans cheerfully host parties and deny the threat. The administration blocks efforts by the CDC and other researchers to study the disease. but it’s somehow both deadlier than covid and slower, so by the time hospitals and morgues fill up, way more people are infected than with covid. 120 million Americans die before the crisis stabilizes, 2 thirds of them right leaning and one 3rd left leaning or apolitical.

    The next election sweeps democrats into power nationwide, a 50 point swing as so many more right leaning voters have passed and the living turn on the party that refused to address the crisis.

    That scenario makes constitutional amendments possible. Maybe not plausible though, they would be rushing to address the crisis, the mass graves, the shattered economy. If the plague somehow hit the billionaire class hard, maybe then.

    Things get less likely from there. The US arbitrarily declaring war on the rest of the world, alien invasion, etc.