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Cake day: March 5th, 2025

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  • Europe can’t even produce their own ballistic missiles which have been a game changer in Ukraine as shown by the effectiveness of ATACMS and Iskander-M. And Russia has been massively out producing Europe in terms of air-launched cruise missiles so don’t bring up Storm Shadow (Kh-101 is longer range than Storm Shadow anyways) or other similar weapon systems.

    Russia produced more T-90Ms (a very good tank mind you) last year than the amount of tanks the entire German military has. Production was 20-30 per month last year but this has likely since doubled. Losses for T-90Ms have been low as per Oryx with production massively outpacing losses (one to two months of production last year was enough to replace yearly T-90M losses).

    Even T-72B3 has a superior fire control system than the forty year old system used on the Leopard 2A6.

    The UK practically sent their entire stockpile of SPGs to Ukraine thus have gutted their military to nil and Poland thrown half of their stockpile of SPGs to Ukraine for example. Russia is producing more artillery shells than the entirety of Europe combined according to pro-Ukraine sources. People forget that tanks are not the only weapon that armies have. Almost every European country has complained about massive shortages of ammunition due to it all being given to Ukraine. France stated they could only fight Russia for a few weeks before running out of ammo. Other European countries have stated similar things.

    Most of Russian Armed Forces aren’t even in Ukraine, majority of forces in Ukraine are from irregular volunteer formations recruited from regions across Russia.

    Hence why casualties amongst Russian professionals are low:

    Motorized Rifles: 6,457

    VDV: 3,257

    Naval Infantry: 1,305

    Tank Crew: 1,806

    Artillery: 851

    Special Forces: 736

    Engineering: 291

    Navy: 291

    VVS: 265

    Other: 957

    Total: 16,216

    Source: MediaZona

    For comparison:

    US losses from 2003-2005 mainly against insurgents: 5175

    Source: Defense Casualty Analysis System

    In comparison, Russia had just annihilated tens of thousands of Ukraine’s troops from the most elite units at Kursk oblast (up to 70K albeit take that number with a grain of salt as MoD numbers on both sides, can’t be trusted).













  • plan for a new attack

    Russia has been drilling and preparing troops for a river crossing alongside bringing in additional supplies likely in preparation to cross the Dnieper and they had captured land near the Kherson bridge.

    Without the Ukrainian attacks on say Russian command posts in Kherson Oblast like what happened on March 5, these preparations would likely be easier.

    Alternatively, a Russian FAB strike in Kherson allegedly took down a headquarters for Ukrainian drone operators and with a ceasefire, this can be repaired or whatever.

    TLDR: Russia would likely also use ceasefire to prepare for further operations assuming they accept it.