Also, I’m not a statistician so I may be well off here. But if it didn’t occur last year or the year before when they predicted it would, doesn’t that mean it’s more likely to occur each year that passes that it doesn’t? If it’s a regular occurrence like the headline implies.
Didn’t they say this last year and the year before
Seems like they would have to prepare for it more often than it comes, given their predictive models are imperfect, so that makes sense.
Also, I’m not a statistician so I may be well off here. But if it didn’t occur last year or the year before when they predicted it would, doesn’t that mean it’s more likely to occur each year that passes that it doesn’t? If it’s a regular occurrence like the headline implies.