Well, that’s better than it could have been. Their prediction is:
D66 (centre) 27,
PVV (Wilders) 25,
VVD (liberal-conservative) 23,
GL/PvdA (leftish) 20 (leader has now quit),
CDA (centre-right) 19
JA21 (radical right) 9
FvD (far right) 6
BBB (farmers/right) 4
3 each: SP, Denk, Dieren, SGP
2 each: CU, 50Plus
Volt 1
Any coalition needs 76 for a majority, most won’t work with PVV again, PVV, VVD and JA21 won’t work with GL/PvdA, JA21 says they won’t with D66 either. The ruling coalition from 2017 to 2023 D66-VVD-CDA-CU would contain 71, so still not quite enough, which may mean one of the further right parties is invited, or at least asked to agree to support the minority government in some votes. D66 have said they would prefer a national unity government to a right-leaning coalition. Interesting times?
If they want to have a coalition of 4 there is basically two flavours:
D66, CDA, VVD + GL-PvdA
D66, CDA, VVD + JA21
Option one is blocked by VVD because they consider GL-PvdA too left, mainly because of their policies on taxing the rich used to pay for measurements against climate change. If PvdA turns out to be willing to accept a more moderate apprach, this would lead to a sturdy majority.
D66 and CDA have a problem with JA21 because of what they see as immoral policies. They are strongly against migration and use the controversial term of remigration because they’d like to give money migrated people with dutch passports to leave the country/the eu and live somewhere else. They also want to continue drilling for gas, but that is probably less of an issue because they already said they want to do this after 2030 (long story). If JA21 accepts a more reasonable stance on migration they could become an acceptable partner but they would only have a small majority.
If these 2 options don’t work out they will have to look for a coalition with 5 parties which would be a first. Or they could have a minority cabinet, but since both D66 and CDA are big on there having to be a stable government i don’t think that will happen soon either.
Well, that’s better than it could have been. Their prediction is:
Any coalition needs 76 for a majority, most won’t work with PVV again, PVV, VVD and JA21 won’t work with GL/PvdA, JA21 says they won’t with D66 either. The ruling coalition from 2017 to 2023 D66-VVD-CDA-CU would contain 71, so still not quite enough, which may mean one of the further right parties is invited, or at least asked to agree to support the minority government in some votes. D66 have said they would prefer a national unity government to a right-leaning coalition. Interesting times?
If they want to have a coalition of 4 there is basically two flavours:
Option one is blocked by VVD because they consider GL-PvdA too left, mainly because of their policies on taxing the rich used to pay for measurements against climate change. If PvdA turns out to be willing to accept a more moderate apprach, this would lead to a sturdy majority.
D66 and CDA have a problem with JA21 because of what they see as immoral policies. They are strongly against migration and use the controversial term of remigration because they’d like to give money migrated people with dutch passports to leave the country/the eu and live somewhere else. They also want to continue drilling for gas, but that is probably less of an issue because they already said they want to do this after 2030 (long story). If JA21 accepts a more reasonable stance on migration they could become an acceptable partner but they would only have a small majority.
If these 2 options don’t work out they will have to look for a coalition with 5 parties which would be a first. Or they could have a minority cabinet, but since both D66 and CDA are big on there having to be a stable government i don’t think that will happen soon either.