Russia only negotiates when it feels it can longer get what it wants by force. It then switches to maximalist, zero-compromise give-me-something style demands to the point of absurdity.
But what should Ukraine do? The Russians and their U.S. proxies are pushing for concessions, with zero hard security guarantees. The ‘realities on the ground’, as they’re very fond of saying, aren’t such that Ukraine should be happy to only lose 20% of it’s territory, including all the human, resource and industrial potential that that includes. U.S. material support is barely relevant to Ukraine’s ability to resist the 2025 version of the Russian Terrorist Army strategically.
Indeed, what should they do? U.S. leverage is less than Trump would have you believe. Russian capabilities are not getting markedly better by any measure. Their small, slow advances are not adding up to strategic defeat for Ukraine. Ukraine has many more ‘cards to play’ before they, and Europe, should accept that this is the best time to…well…surrender, and let the russian re-tool for an obvious Next Glorious Invasion in a couple years.
Maybe the wisest plan is to keep fighting. Keep bleeding the Russians until they howl, and their terms get better. They aren’t reasonable actors - they’re trying to eradicate Ukraine completely. Politicallly, militarily, culturally. And that’s not old news - Putin said this last week. Fight until the last Ukrainian is dead. How can you even consider negotiating with such clearly genocidal hatred.
Exactly. Diplomacy is a trick of the weak to keep down the strong. The goal was obviously complete Belarus-ization of Ukraine. And yet 4 years on, with a shattered army, terminal demographics and a shittered economy, they are reduced to demanding territory they’d already controlled for a decade.
Trump is their last big card to try and get a peace they don’t deserve. And he’s a geriatric pervert who is 40% Diet Coke by volume. His lifespan is measured in months, they HAVE to get a favorable deal out of his remaining time, full stop. Everything gets worse for the russians after this point. They need men and equipment that doesn’t exist, and they needed it months ago to make a strategic difference today.
The best option for a long term peace might well be for Ukraine to keep bleeding them. Trump and Pootz will howl and wail about ukrainian war mongering - but…what can they really do? The 2025 version of the Ukrainian Army can probably continue to resist like this with zero U.S. support. And the sidelined Europeans don’t have much incentive to stop supporting Ukraine. Russia will continue with it’s corrosive populist misinformation, but doesn’t deserve anything close to the settlement terms it’s proposing.