Russia only negotiates when it feels it can longer get what it wants by force. It then switches to maximalist, zero-compromise give-me-something style demands to the point of absurdity.
But what should Ukraine do? The Russians and their U.S. proxies are pushing for concessions, with zero hard security guarantees. The ‘realities on the ground’, as they’re very fond of saying, aren’t such that Ukraine should be happy to only lose 20% of it’s territory, including all the human, resource and industrial potential that that includes. U.S. material support is barely relevant to Ukraine’s ability to resist the 2025 version of the Russian Terrorist Army strategically.
Indeed, what should they do? U.S. leverage is less than Trump would have you believe. Russian capabilities are not getting markedly better by any measure. Their small, slow advances are not adding up to strategic defeat for Ukraine. Ukraine has many more ‘cards to play’ before they, and Europe, should accept that this is the best time to…well…surrender, and let the russian re-tool for an obvious Next Glorious Invasion in a couple years.
Maybe the wisest plan is to keep fighting. Keep bleeding the Russians until they howl, and their terms get better. They aren’t reasonable actors - they’re trying to eradicate Ukraine completely. Politicallly, militarily, culturally. And that’s not old news - Putin said this last week. Fight until the last Ukrainian is dead. How can you even consider negotiating with such clearly genocidal hatred.
Russia’s the type of poker player that comes to the table with 100 times more chips than everyone else and then goes all in every single hand regardless of what cards they have, hoping that eventually they’ll either bully you into folding or that they come up aces before their chips run out.
Good one. I’ve seen it said that Putin is a poker player who wants you to think he’s a chess player. And not a particularly good one. As you say - bluff every hand.
I mean - in all of the disproven myths of this war - the biggest might be their entire Way of War. Horde War is based on the assumption that it doesn’t matter that NATO stuff is better than yours, as long as you have enough of it. You can push from Poland to Portugal, before the feckless pussies in the West are even ready to start responding. Besides, they won’t really fight anyways, because they’re soft. Right?..Right, comrade? Onwards, Blyatzkrieg.
Well here we are, 4 years in, where Russia is a cab ride away from the same territory they’d already controlled for a decade. Except - that they have pissed away their entire soviet stockpile inheritance, destroyed their primary export markets, shown their defense industry to be hot garbage, become junior vassal to China in the Axis of Authoritarian Shitholes, burned through the 30 year war-chest, accelerated their demographic suicide…and for what? The hubris and vain delusions of an overpromoted gangster ghoul.